I actually really like these ideas! I'm into crypto so it may sound odd that I think that is the least likely to happen, but you might as well keep it in there. The rest of the ideas are sound.
My brother has been here since 1974 and he says New York moves in 25 year or so cycles of prosperity followed by bust. The last bust started in the late 50s and continued into the 80s. After New York was cleaned up and businesses came back we had roughly 20 years of a clean, prosperous, well-functioning city and he think now inevitably we are due for it all to fall apart one way or other.